UPS slashing Amazon volume by 50% in push for profitability

UPS (NYSE: UPS) also announced an initiative called “efficiency reimagined,” which aims to reduce spending by $1 billion and will include reductions in labor and the closing of a number of facilities in its logistics network over the next several quarters.

The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $25.3 billion, a 1.6% year-over-year increase compared to the previous year.

Adjusted earnings per share in the quarter came in at $2.75, up 11.3% year over year compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

UPS missed Wall Street revenue expectations of $25.419 but beat EPS predictions of $2.53.

The company’s U.S. domestic segment fourth-quarter revenue increased 2.2% year over year to $17.3 billion, reflecting a 2.4% year-over-year increase in revenue per piece, along with increases in air cargo volumes. 

UPS’ international segment quarterly revenue grew 6.9% year over year to $4.9 billion, reflecting an 8.8% year-over-year increase in average daily volume. 

“International domestic average daily volume increased 5.8% compared to last year, driven by strong performance in Canada,” CFO Brian Dykes said. “On the export side, average daily volume increased 11.7% year over year, with all regions delivering average daily volume growth. Asia export average daily volume was up 15.4% year over year, delivering growth for the third consecutive quarter.”

Dykes said 17 of UPS’ top 20 export countries grew export average daily volume during the fourth quarter, led by Mexico and Germany.

“In Germany, which is our largest export market, average daily volume increased 8.6% compared to last year in the fourth quarter,” Dykes said.

The supply chain solutions segment’s fourth-quarter revenue declined by 9.1% year over year to $3 billion.

For 2025, UPS expects total revenue of $89 billion, down about 2.3% from 2024. 

The company is planning capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion, dividend payments of around $5.5 billion, subject to board approval, and share repurchases of around $1 billion. The effective tax rate is expected to be around 23.5%.

During the call, an analyst asked UPS officials if they believed they had seen “the last of the big shoes to drop on some of the changes to the competitive landscape, or could there be more seismic shifts?”

“I think the world is changing, and the rate of change is accelerating,” Tomé said. “It’s hard to imagine another big shoe to drop. I don’t think we fully understand the impact of generative AI and what it can mean for productivity amongst industries broadly. We need to be mindful that trade follows policy, and tariffs aren’t necessarily good for trade. So there may be changing trade lanes. I don’t know if it’s a big shoe to drop, but it could be changing trade lanes. But we do know that the largest trade lanes in the world are in Asia, and we’re expanding our air hub in Hong Kong and building a new one in the Philippines.”