Maritime trade is entering a period of fragile growth marked by geopolitical adjustments and structural pressures, a new analysis finds, with only modest prospects for containerized shipping over the next several years.
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While 80% of the world’s merchandise trade moves by sea, the maritime industry is facing rising costs and increasing uncertainty, according to the UN’s Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Review of Maritime Transport 2025.
Maritime trade volume will expand by just 0.5% in 2025, and containerized trade by 1.4% after a robust 2024. UNCTAD projects volumes in the mid-term from 2026–2030 to grow at an average annual rate of 2% and containerized trade by 2.3%.
Seaborne ton-miles are expected to grow 5.9% in 2025, largely due to rerouting of vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope as Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to target shipping in the Red Sea. But ton-miles are forecast to increase a marginal 0.3% over the mid-term.
“These shifts largely reflect structural drivers, such as geopolitical realignment, industrial policy changes and the global energy transition,” UNCTAD said in the report.
The maritime energy trade in oil and natural gas is evolving, the report found, with commodities moving in different directions.
Coal shipments rose in 2024 on Asian demand, in contrast with a longer-term decline as nations transition to cleaner energy sources. Oil volumes remained stable, while liquified natural gas developed into the most dynamic segment on diversification of suppliers and destinations.
“The transitions ahead – to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes – must be just transitions,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan, in a release. “They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”
The report said that tariff and trade policies by the United States and its trading partners have heightened political tensions, shifted trade patterns and reconfigured shipping lanes, reshaping the geography of maritime trade.
Tariffs will also push up shipping costs, along with U.S. port fees targeting China-linked ships set to take effect in October.
“The result is more rerouting, skipped port calls, longer journeys and ultimately increased costs,” UNCTAD said. “Energy shipping is also in transition: coal and oil volumes are under pressure from decarbonization efforts, while gas trade continues to expand.”
The report said that environmental compliance costs, including emissions pricing, “are redefining shipping economics,” with higher transport costs hitting smaller countries the hardest.
The report found that disruptions have increased congestion and longer waiting time for ships at ports, also driving up costs.
UNCTAD has called for targeted measures to mitigate transport cost increases, strengthen port performance, advance trade facilitation and improve predictability in trade policies.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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