Facing tough comparisons to a year ago, less-than-truckload carrier Saia’s tonnage declines moderated in February as daily shipment counts turned positive.
The Johns Creek, Georgia-based company reported Tuesday that tonnage was down 2.7% year over year in February, an improvement from January’s 7% decline. The February result was driven by a 0.3% increase in daily shipments, which was more than offset by a 3% decline in weight per shipment.
Both months were up against low-double-digit increases in 2025. On a two-year-stacked comparison, Saia’s (NASDAQ: SAIA) tonnage was up 9.5% in February (up 6.8% in January). Saia’s prior-year comps begin to ease in April (plus-4.4%), turning negative by May.
Management from the company previously indicated that January shipments, which were down 2.1% y/y, would have increased without the severe winter storms. (January tonnage would have been down approximately 4% to 4.5%.)
The update follows positive manufacturing data released on Monday.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a 52.4 reading in February, 20 basis points lower than January. (A reading above 50 signals expansion while one below 50 indicates contraction.) This was the second straight positive report for the dataset, which has largely been in negative territory for over three years.
The new orders subindex—an indicator of future activity—came in at 55.8. Inflections in PMI data usually lead LTL volumes by a few months.
Saia doesn’t provide revenue-based metrics in its midquarter updates, but said pricing on contract renewals increased 5.9% in February. It previously disclosed a 6.6% increase in January. Contractual rate increases averaged 4.9% in the fourth quarter.
The company normally records 30 to 50 bps of sequential margin deterioration from the fourth to first quarter, but expects to outperform that change rate this year, in part due to a diminished starting point (fourth-quarter’s adjusted operating ratio was 91.3%). The company reported a 91.1% OR in the 2025 first quarter.
Its full-year 2026 outlook calls for 100 to 200 bps of y/y improvement, with the high end of the range tethered to modest volume and yield growth. Saia has opened 39 terminals over the past three years, making it a true national carrier. While the new service centers are operating profitably, they have been a margin drag in recent quarters.
Shares of SAIA were up 0.4% at 2:26 p.m. EST on Tuesday compared to the S&P 500, which was off 0.8%.
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