Retailers are forecasting an import cargo surge at U.S. ports this summer following the 90-day break in the tariff fight between China and the United States.
The outlook by the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker provides a detailed picture of how current trade policies are influencing U.S. ports and the anticipated changes in import volumes.
As retailers brace for the peak back-to-school and fall-winter holiday seasons, there is a pronounced surge in imports driven by a temporary reduction in tariffs on goods from China.
Many retailers who halted or reduced orders due to tariffs rising to 145% are now resuming imports following a reduction to 30% and a 90-day tariff pause.
Economic indicators underline significant variations in import volumes during this period.
In April, prior to the full impact of the tariff increases, U.S. ports handled 2.21 million twenty-foot equivalent units, marking a 2.9% increase from March and a 9.6% year-over-year rise. However, projections for May indicated a substantial downturn, with the expected handling of 1.91 million TEUs — a 13.4% decrease from April and an 8.1% drop from a year ago. This decline represented the first year-over-year contraction since September 2023 and signaled the lowest volume since December 2023.
The forecast suggests a rebound starting in June as importers rush to exploit the tariff pause, even though overall numbers remain lower than 2024. For example, June’s figures hover at approximately 2.01 million TEUs, a 6.2% drop from the previous year. Similar trends are projected for July and August, with expected volumes at 2.13 million TEUs and 1.98 million TEUs, reflecting year-over-year decreases of 8.1% and 14.7%, respectively.
This early convergence of back-to-school and winter holiday peaks due to tariff-related scheduling shifts is unusual and illustrates the complexities of the current trade environment, the NRF said in a release.
However, unless further tariff relaxations occur, volumes are anticipated to decline for the remaining portion of 2025.
The forecast for September and October points to even sharper declines, with September expected at 1.78 million TEUs, down 21.8% year over year, and October at 1.8 million TEUs, a 19.8% drop. These estimates account for previous surges in late 2024 imports when uncertainty over East Coast and Gulf Coast port labor strikes drove volumes higher.
Overall, the first half of 2025 is expected to total 12.54 million TEUs, marking a 3.7% year-over-year increase, a figure revised upward due to the tariff pause but still below earlier optimistic scenarios envisioned before tariff intensifications in April.
Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.
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