Retail, CPG industries brace for election results

Monday’s show can be seen here, and check out the full The Stockout playlist here. 

NRF reiterates stance against tariffs

This is not a surprise since the National Retail Federation has said this before, and since tariffs would disrupt their members’ supply chains, increase their costs and reduce sales volume given the resulting higher retail prices. Matt Shay, chief executive of the NRF, arguing that tariffs are a tax on U.S. companies and consumers, quoted estimates by the Peterson Institute for International Economics that found that existing tariffs cost an estimated $1,500-$3,000 per household, which would rise to more than $4,000 per household under a second Trump administration. 

Other comments from the NRF include its expectation for holiday sales this season to grow 2.5%-3.5% from last year and that the strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association will have no effect on holiday sales.

For more detail, see Stuart Chirls’ article here.

Marten’s results show it’s not easy making money in reefer

SONAR shows average reefer rates roughly in line with 2023 levels but well below 2022 levels. 
John Kingston’s writeup of Marten’s results is not going to persuade anyone to start up an asset-heavy refrigerated trucking company, and it stands to reason that the private reefer companies are under similar pressure. Margins deteriorated in each of Marten’s four segments with a notable deterioration from 97.2% to 100.2% in its truckload segment. In previous earnings releases, management said it was unwilling to cut rates in the down market, but this was not mentioned in the third-quarter earnings release. The implication was that it was forced to cut rates in the past quarter to attract loads.