Old Dominion not changing course as downturn lingers

Old Dominion’s y/y tonnage comps ease in the back half of the year (negative-5% y/y and negative-8% y/y in the third and fourth quarters, respectively). However, the monthly sequential changes in tonnage during the second quarter still lagged historical trends by 200 to 300 basis points. Further, revenue per day was up less than 1% sequentially in the quarter when it normally increases 8.2%.

Tonnage is down 8.5% y/y in July with revenue per day off 5.1% y/y. Both numbers represented a slight slowdown from the second-quarter declines. The carrier said the sequential tonnage change in July (from June) was about 100 bps better than normal.

Management is calling for a 4% to 4.5% y/y increase in yield (excluding fuel) during the third quarter, which implies a roughly 1.5% sequential improvement. It said pricing on contract renewals continues to be positive and noted that the rate increases are accompanying more volume in some instances.

The company reported a 74.6% operating ratio (inverse of operating margin), which was 270 bps worse y/y and just 80 bps better than the first quarter. That was shy of management’s guidance for 100 bps of sequential improvement. (The carrier normally sees 300 to 350 bps of sequential margin improvement in the second quarter.)

Cost per shipment was up 5.1% with revenue per shipment up just 1.2%, a 390-bp negative spread.

Salaries, wages and benefits expenses (as a percentage of revenue) increased 210 bps y/y. A 4.8% decline in headcount didn’t keep pace with the 7% drop in shipments.

Depreciation and amortization expenses were 80 bps higher y/y.           

Old Dominion’s OR normally sees no change to 50 bps of deterioration from the second to the third quarter. However, that move typically accompanies a 3% sequential increase in revenue, which is not occurring currently.

If revenue remains flat throughout the quarter, the carrier will likely see 80 to 120 bps of margin degradation, implying a 75.6% OR (at the midpoint), or 290 bps worse y/y.

The carrier also faces some headwinds across multiple expense lines. Benefits costs are up and the company implements an annual wage increase every September.

It also called out recent losses on equipment sales as it modestly trims the fleet. Truckload carriers selling two-year-old tractors have been booking gains, but Old Dominion is trying to move 10-year-old daycabs with more than one million miles.

The company is also carrying excess capacity (and additional costs) as it awaits an eventual market turn. As such, its overhead costs represented 22% of revenue in the second quarter compared to just 17% in 2022 — a much stronger demand environment.

The company’s high-fixed-cost network should again see operating leverage as revenue increases. Old Dominion saw a 60% incremental operating margin in the second quarter (as compared to the first quarter). It normally sees 35% to 40% incremental margins coming out of downturns.

Old Dominion reported second-quarter earnings per share of $1.27 ahead of the market open on Wednesday. The result was a penny light of the consensus estimate and 21 cents lower y/y. A decline in net interest income was nearly a 2-cent drag compared to the year-ago quarter.

Shares of ODFL were down 8.7% at 12:23 p.m. EDT on Wednesday compared to the S&P 500, which was up 0.3%. Shares of ArcBest (NASDAQ: ARCB) were also under pressure, down 11.1%, after reporting second-quarter results light of expectations earlier in the day.

More FreightWaves articles by Todd Maiden:

• First look: ArcBest Q2 earnings
• Landstar reports trucking revenue growth for first time in nearly 3 years
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