New analysis sees ocean rates set to fall further

Drewry: Weaker trans-Pacific trade after Lunar New Year

(Photo: Zim)

Ocean shipping rates out of Asia fell by double-digits to the United States and Europe, new analysis shows, following the ramp-up in demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday.

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) decreased 10% to $2,212 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the second consecutive week, primarily on weaker rates on trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe trade routes.

Softer post-holiday demand led carriers to increase blanked (cancelled or postponed) sailings, Drewry said. Spot rates from Shanghai to New York were 11% lower at $3,191 per FEU; Shanghai to Los Angeles prices decreased 12% to $2,546 per FEU. 

Drewry expects freight rates on the trade to decline further in the coming weeks.

A weakening market comes faces major carriers re-starting scheduled services through the Suez Canal and Red Sea, a key Asia route to the United States but one fraught since late 2023 with risk from sectarian violence.

Maersk (MAERSK-B.CO) was scheduled to resume rotations on the Suez route as of today while CMA CGM earlier announced expanded sailings there only to re-route three Asia-Europe services away from the region and around the tip of Africa without explanation. 

Maersk has tested smaller vessels as it readies its India-U.S. East Coast scheduling, in an effort to regulate the re-introduction of capacity amid falling rates. 

Drewry said Asia–Europe spot rates declined for the second consecutive week. Shanghai–Rotterdam dropped 9% to $2,510 per FEU and Shanghai–Genoa fell 8% to $3,520.

“These conflicting operational decisions by carriers [in the Red Sea] suggest that effective shipping capacity will be reintroduced to the market gradually rather than all at once,” Drewry said in a release. “This ‘drip-feed’ approach allows carriers to carefully assess risk and adjust their future networks, preventing a catastrophic collapse in spot rates.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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Stuart Chirls

Stuart Chirls is a journalist who has covered the full breadth of railroads, intermodal, container shipping, ports, supply chain and logistics for Railway Age, the Journal of Commerce and IANA. He has also staffed at S&P, McGraw-Hill, United Business Media, Advance Media, Tribune Co., The New York Times Co., and worked in supply chain with BASF, the world's largest chemical producer. Reach him at stuartchirls@firecrown.com.