The for-hire trucking industry faced its fourth consecutive month of declining volumes in June, according to ACT Research’s For-Hire Trucking Index. The diffusion index is based on a survey of carriers and measures the degree and direction of changes in their operational statistics. A reading above 50 shows growth; below 50 is degradation.
The Volume Index posted a seasonally adjusted 41.5 in June, down from 42.5 in May. This downturn stems from tariff-related effects, particularly the early April tariffs and persistent overcapacity, extending the current freight market downcycle.
Volumes are expected to improve, with the release noting, “Volumes should improve in July and August following the tariff reprieve, but the pull-forwards in freight demand in the first half of the year will result in paybacks.”
Particularly noteworthy is the Driver Availability Index, which tightened to 47.9 from 50.9, the first deterioration in driver supply in 38 months. “Given the duration of the downturn, current uncertainty, and a weaker freight outlook due to tariffs, we would expect the driver market to continue to tighten in the near term,” the report notes. “While a tighter driver supply is a potential catalyst for a new cycle, demand is needed too.”
Other causes of tightening driver availability include cost-cutting measures, which are beginning to take drivers and driving schools out of the market.
Fleet purchase intentions rose 15.6% month over month in June, with 43% of respondents planning equipment purchases in the next three months. However, this remains significantly below the 54% long-term average as fleets deal with financial constraints and rising equipment costs.
The report adds, “Overall, buying sentiment is expected to remain below the long-term average as we enter the 13th quarter of a for-hire downturn, compared to the six- to eight-quarter historical average. Fleets are cash-strapped, and many are delaying or forgoing new equipment purchases altogether.”
The Pricing Index fell 3.6 points to 44.2 in June from 47.8 in May. The persistent overcapacity remains evident in soft spot trends during typically strong seasonal months. While volumes should improve following the tariff reprieve, multiple pull-forwards in freight demand earlier in the year will likely result in payback periods.
The Capacity Index increased slightly to 46.8 in June, up 0.4 points from May, but capacity continued to decline overall as publicly traded TL carriers’ profit margins remain near their lowest levels since 2009.
The Productivity Index showed a substantial 16.3-point decrease to 47.6 in June, as the loosening capacity returned following May’s temporary tightness during Roadcheck week.
With tariff impacts expected to weigh on volumes through 2025, recovery prospects remain limited despite ongoing capacity attrition.
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