Class 8 truck orders tumble in November

October and November are historically months when fleets place orders for the next year. Some signs of that appeared in October, which broke 10 consecutive months of lower year-over-year orders. November orders were down 21% from October.

Other than a couple of manufacturers reporting decent activity, total orders fell below expectations, FTR said.

“The freight market downturn worsened in the past month, and uncertainty surrounding trade and tariffs continue to weigh on truck buyers’ psyches,” said Tim DeNoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. ACT reported 17,500 preliminary North America Class 8 orders for November.  

The stalling of freight growth is causing fleets to exercise caution in placing orders for 2020, said Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles.

“There will still be plenty of freight to haul, so we expect fleets will continue to be profitable and to replace older equipment,” he said. “However, there won’t be a need for much additional equipment on the roads.”

Four months of lower manufacturing activity and ongoing uncertainty over tariffs are destabilizing prices and supply chains.

“The industry thrives on stability, but we are now on a rocky road,” Ake said.

The rolling 12-month average for Class 8 orders is now 180,000 units. The industry’s production backlog has fallen below 130,000 units, less than half the orders waiting to be built in December 2018. Retail sales are still expected to set a record of 310,000 or higher this year.

Private fleets are still adding new tractor capacity, but large for-hire fleets are signaling they will “right-size” the number of trucks to the available freight to haul, DeNoyer said.