Check Call: The 2025 supply chain roller coaster

• U.S. logistics spending hit $2.58 trillion, holding steady at 8.8% of GDP — the same proportion as in 2023 but up from $2.45 trillion last year. 
• Ocean ports saw costs nearly double (+93%) due to Asia‑U.S. rate hikes, with relief expected as new vessels enter service and Red Sea tensions ease.
• Railroads had steady growth, but to compete they’ll need smarter infrastructure and partnerships to tap into nearshoring opportunities.
• Airfreight skyrocketed by about 11% in 2024, driven by e‑commerce giants like Temu and Shein, but forecast growth is cooling to around 5.8% in 2025. 
• Warehousing is stabilizing: Roughly 6.7% vacancy, slower construction, and rising interest in automation and AI.
• 3PLs are front and center. Expanding hubs, upping last-mile muscle and leaning hard into data, AI and automation are helping clients manage volatility.
• Logistics output is projected to grow 2% in the U.S. and 4.1% worldwide, with the global market hitting $5.95 trillion by 2030 (7.2% compound annual growth rate).

Mark Baxa, CSCMP’s CEO, says, “Today’s logistics leaders are operating in a world of rapid shifts and persistent uncertainty — a true fog of global commerce. As the fog thickens, the logistics industry must move beyond short‑term fixes … resilience — not as a luxury, but as a strategic imperative.”

One specific callout that has had a journey of unpredictability is sustainability. What was once at the forefront of the industry has backslid out of the limelight as other pressing components of the supply chain took center stage. The European Union is pushing for stricter mandates and initiatives, while U.S.-based companies are more or less stuck. With a lack of federal support for green initiatives and a host of other challenges, companies are having to revisit sustainability targets and timelines as the focus shifts to more tangible returns to the balance sheet. 

Korhan Acar, Kearney partner and lead author for the report states, “As AI and automation drive down the cost of building resilient supply chains, the greater risk now lies in standing still.” 

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