Check Call: Cross-border volumes surge ahead of possible tariffs

Trade between the U.S. and Mexico continues to surge, fueled in large part by nearshoring trends and tighter regional supply chains. In May, U.S.-Mexico trade volumes reached an impressive $74 billion, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau. That figure marks a 2.64% increase from the same time last year, with key growth areas in automotive parts, computers, agricultural products, and electronics.

Laredo, Texas, once again stood out as the busiest international gateway for trade, processing over $27.6 billion in total imports and exports. Much of that movement was truck-based, with the port recording nearly 300,000 commercial crossings in May alone. This sustained growth signals continued opportunity, but looming trade tensions could complicate the road ahead.

The Trump Administration recently announced a proposal to reinstate broad tariffs on Mexican imports if re-elected, calling for a 30% tariff on all goods coming from Mexico. Tariffs at this scale would likely introduce volatility into what has recently been one of the most stable growth areas for freight.

A fresh ruling by the U.S. Commerce Department in late June reinstated a 17.56% tariff on Mexican fresh tomatoes, a staple in U.S. grocery imports. Produce industry experts warn that prices could jump 30% or more in the coming months, especially as buyers seek alternative sources. Any cost shift like this could ripple across reefer capacity and affect seasonal planning for brokers that move perishable goods.