In its new publication time Tuesday morning, the benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges rose on the back of increases in diesel futures that now seem a distant memory.
The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration price rose 4.7 cents a gallon, to $3.639. It’s the third consecutive weekly increase, and it has added 9 cents to the benchmark during that time.
An increase in diesel prices in the midst of what has been a significant collapse in oil prices may look odd. It occurred despite the collapse in futures prices for crude, diesel and gasoline in futures markets in recent days on the backs of a decline in virtually all asset classes: stock, crypto and the dollar. (The fall in the dollar and the concurrent decrease in oil prices is unusual, because oil and the greenback tend to move in opposite directions.)
But the retail price lag is reflecting an increase in the price of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange that took place several weeks ago. From a settlement of $2.1622 a gallon on March 13, ULSD rose to a high settlement of $2.314 on March 31.
But that was followed by a slide that resulted in Monday’s settlement of $2.0699 a gallon. That decline marked an outright decline of 24.41 cents per gallon and a percentage decline of 10.5% over just five trading days.
Oil markets midday Tuesday were rebounding slightly, with ULSD up a little more than 1% at about 12:15 p.m.
As tends to be the case when oil markets are extremely volatile as a result of external factors, crude moves up or down by a greater percentage than gasoline or diesel. That’s apparent in the comparison between Brent and ULSD, which moved to a spread of 54.1 cents a gallon of ULSD over Brent on Monday after being 50.8 cents a gallon on March 28.
The latest publication of the DOE/EIA price was the first time it had been released at its new regular time of Tuesday around 10 a.m., instead of late Monday afternoon. However, the price remains effective for the prior day so that the new price’s effective date is listed as April 7.
There has been one development in oil market fundamentals that has also been a factor in the price decline: the decision by the OPEC+ group to go ahead with production increases scheduled for the start of this month, despite the fall in prices. The gradual rollback in production cuts in place since 2023 was slated to begin this month. As April came, there was no pullback in that plan, as there has been during other times when the reduction in output was supposed to take place.
In a commentary for Bloomberg, longtime commodities expert Javier Blas said the increase in output, backed by Saudi Arabia, may have longer-term strategic goals.
“Whether the Saudis wanted to teach a lesson to OPEC+ cheaters like Kazakhstan, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, or they had Trump in mind is unclear,” Blas wrote, noting that Trump also desires lower prices. “I believe both factors played a role.”
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