As the market turns, broker stress tests are already underway

Brokers often struggle most not at the bottom of the cycle, but as it begins to move. RXO’s commentary fits that pattern. Capacity remains readily available in many lanes, but it is no longer uniformly cheap. Spot rates can move quickly, contract rates lag behind, and brokers caught between the two are forced to make uncomfortable decisions about margin sacrifice versus customer retention.

That tension is likely to intensify as 2026 unfolds.

Where Brokers Feel the Pressure First

One of the clearest risks in an upward-inflating market is working capital strain. As carrier rates firm faster than shipper pricing, brokers are asked to float higher payments while waiting for contractual adjustments to catch up. For large, well-capitalized players, this is manageable. 

RXO acknowledged this dynamic indirectly, emphasizing discipline around pricing and lane selection. The message was subtle but important: not all freight is worth chasing in a turn. Growth without margin is still just risk. As reported in RXO’s fourth quarter call, “The bottom line GAAP net loss was $46 million in the fourth quarter. That was more than a $25 million GAAP net loss in the fourth quarter of 2024, and $14 million in the third quarter.”

Another stress point is operational. Rising volatility rewards brokers with strong carrier relationships and real-time visibility into lane-level pricing. Those relying too heavily on static models or national averages are more likely to misprice freight and pay for it later.

Why C.H. Robinson Looks Different

The contrast with C.H. Robinson is revealing.

Despite ongoing headwinds, Robinson’s earnings calls struck a notably different tone. While management acknowledged the tough environment, the company highlighted productivity gains, cost discipline and improved execution. The market responded accordingly, sending the stock higher even as freight fundamentals remained mixed.

C.H. Robinson, CFO  Damon Lee said the North American Surfact Transport group is “still on a very good trajectory to get to that 40% target. We’ll make an earnings growth and quality of earnings growth decision on whether we continue to expand margins at that point, or whether we reinvest that into demonstrable growth.”

The difference is not simply scale, though scale helps. Robinson has spent the downturn restructuring operations, investing in technology and reducing headcount to better align with demand. That has given it flexibility heading into a turn, the ability to absorb short-term margin pressure without losing strategic footing.

XEO of C.H. Robinson, Dave Bozeman said, “There could be a ‘shift’ in the headcount, because we are shifting to a more customer-focused and automating largely through AI processes that have a lot of friction and a lot of entry-level headcount. And for some of that, we’re not backfilling.”

What Brokers Should Be Watching Now

As signals of recovery build, brokers would be wise to focus less on headline rate increases and more on the mechanics underneath them. Lane-by-lane volatility, customer mix and carrier loyalty will matter more than broad market direction.

Equally important is credit exposure. Shippers slow to adjust rates upward may also be slow to pay, compounding cash flow challenges. Brokers who tighten credit terms or proactively manage receivables may find themselves better positioned when conditions tighten further.

Finally, the RXO and Robinson results both point to a hard truth: the market’s next phase will reward execution, not optimism. The easy money of past upcycles is unlikely to return in the same form.