Drewry: No “lasting impact” from tariff break as ocean rates fall again

Rates from Shanghai to New York fell 13% to $5,703 per forty foot equivalent unit (FEU) container in the past week, but spot rates are still up a significant 56% compared to May 8. Spot rates to Los Angeles dropped 20% this past week, but are ahead 38% over the past seven weeks.

Freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Shanghai to Genoa increased 1% to $3,204 and $4,100 per FEU, respectively.

“We expect the supply-demand balance to weaken again in 2H25, which will cause spot rates to decline,” the analyst said. “The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on the outcome of legal challenges to Trump’s tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of the U.S. penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.”

Container volume surged in the wake of the China-U.S. tariff ceasefire, which was announced April 12. On Friday, the U.S. announced it had come to an agreement with China on tariffs. 

Drewry’s North American Container Port Throughput Index increased 2.2% month-over-month in April to 118.4 points, representing a strong 10.3% increase compared to the same period last year. 

The rolling 12-month average growth rate for North America saw a slight recovery, reaching 10.2%. Most major ports on the U.S. West Coast experienced rising volumes in April, both on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. 

Long Beach continued its impressive start to 2025, with April throughput climbing 6.1% month-over-month and a significant 15.6% year-over-year. Neighboring Los Angeles also performed well, with handling up 8.3% month-over-month and 9.4% year-over-year, indicating robust activity across these critical gateways for trans-Pacific trade.

The global index saw a modest month-over-month increase of 0.5% and a more substantial year-over-year rise of 5.6%. This upward trend is further reinforced by a stable rolling 12-month growth rate, holding at 6.5%. 

Looking at the year-to-date figures (January-April), North America and the Middle East-South Asia are leading the charge, both exhibiting robust growth of 9.7% and 9.6% respectively. Greater China is not far behind, at a 7.5% increase. Oceania was the sole region to report a decline, down 3.1%.

Greater China’s container ports demonstrated solid performance in April, as the regional throughput index climbed 2.3% month-over-month to 125.4 points, marking a 7.1% increase y/y. The rolling 12-month average growth rate for the region also improved, matching the global average at 6.5%. 

The top five Chinese ports collectively saw an average year-over-year increase of 10% in April. Shenzhen emerged as a particular standout, with its volumes surging by 15% year-over-year. Guangzhou also reported strong performance, with a 10.3% year-over-year increase, followed closely by Ningbo, which saw a 9.1% rise in throughput.

In contrast, the Latin America Container Port Throughput Index experienced a dip in April, falling 3.2% month-over-month. The region’s throughput remained up 2.8% on an annual basis. However, the rolling 12-month average growth rate for Latin America decreased to 9%. While still comfortably above the global average of 6.5%, this decline suggests a loss of momentum in this regional market. 

Following a surge in March, throughput at five Panama terminals decreased by 5% month-over-month in April, though it was still 1.5% above the April 2024 level. 

Brazil’s Santos port saw flat volumes month-over-month but a 2% year-over-year increase in April. Even with an 11% month-over-month decline reported at Callao, Peru, its volumes remain 11% ahead on a year-over-year basis, highlighting the uneven performance across Latin American ports.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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