Trade War Command Center quantifies import turmoil

Six weeks after Liberation Day, the pause in imports in the China-to-U.S. trade lane is showing up clearly in the containerized rail intermodal volume dataset within SONAR, which can be accessed via the ORAIL tickers. Using a seven-day moving average, U.S. international intermodal volume is down 3.5% year over year after previously posting year-over-year gains. Month over month, U.S. international intermodal volume and international intermodal volume outbound from Southern California are down 3.4% and 11.1%, respectively.

SONAR Trade War Command Center
As expected, the impact is also being felt on domestic intermodal volume but not nearly to the same degree. While domestic intermodal volume is less tied to international trade than international intermodal volume, it is to an extent due to transloading of imports into domestic containers. Loaded domestic intermodal volume, using a seven-day moving average, is down just 0.78% year over year following previous mid-single-digit year-over-year gains. This trend is likely to persist for the next few weeks before a potential uptick to reflect the impact of the 90-day delay in tariffs on Chinese goods. However, Gene Seroka, executive director at the Port of Los Angeles, is not expecting a major surge in imports.

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